Will we see international travel rebound — and even surge — in 2022?

My colleague Chris Pardo has been writing posts every two weeks with updates on many of the latest pandemic-related travel restrictions across the globe (here’s his latest write-up).

Of course, things change from post to post, but one constant has been that there are still a number of restrictions when it comes to international travel. Countries have had to keep a close eye on the latest COVID-19 variants and monitor infection rates, while opening or closing borders accordingly. And this, not surprisingly, has interrupted plenty of travel plans, with many people putting both relocations and family vacations on hold.

Might 2022 be the year we see this activity come flooding back? Airline executives seem to think so. United Airlines Chief Executive Scott Kirby told the Wall Street Journal that next year “could be the busiest ever for trans-Atlantic travel, with loosening border restrictions unleashing a surge of international travel like the fast rebound in domestic travel last summer.”

We’ve seen this kind of thing happen before, as Chris noted in a post earlier this year that compared the bottleneck of weddings and relocations over the summer. The math is pretty simple: People who delay plans to travel or relocate are joined by those simply making new plans, and the result is a surge in activity.

I noted before that airlines have been preparing for an increase in customers by purchasing new jets. That’s another sign that we could see a wave of international travel in the not-too-distant future, and if your mobility program has had relocations or assignments on hold, the end of 2021 would be a good time to strategize about how and when they can move forward. Of course, as Chris astutely notes in his biweekly posts, things change rapidly when it comes to COVID-19, so it’s best to stay flexible and be prepared to adjust on the fly.