2025 U.S. Immigration Expectations (and Apprehensions)

The U.S. presidential election has now been decided. With Republican majorities incoming for the House and Senate as well, there's a lot of speculation and anxiety around how potential immigration changes may impact global talent mobility. Many are expecting a shift towards more restrictive immigration measures, similar or perhaps even more expansive than the first Trump administration’s policies.

Areas of concern include:

Labor Shortages: Industries such as agriculture, construction, hospitality, and technology heavily depend on immigrant labor. Proposed mass deportations and stricter immigration controls could exacerbate existing labor shortages, disrupting operations and hindering growth. The American Immigration Council estimates that implementing mass deportations could cost $88 billion annually, reflecting the potential economic impact. In addition to this direct cost, they calculate that mass deportations would cost the U.S. GDP 4.2 to 6.8 percent and a huge loss in tax revenue. (In 2022 alone, undocumented immigrant households paid $46.8 billion in federal taxes and $29.3 billion in state and local taxes. Undocumented immigrants also contributed $22.6 billion to Social Security and $5.7 billion to Medicare.)

Economic Impact: Reducing the immigrant workforce may lead to decreased productivity and higher operational costs. Oxford Economics warns that such immigration cuts could reduce GDP growth, lower labor force participation, and drive inflation higher. Additionally, according to the Economic Policy Institute, immigration is enabling economic growth currently despite the sharp deceleration in the growth of the U.S.-born workforce. 

Supply Chain Disruptions: Stricter immigration policies could affect industries reliant on immigrant labor, leading to delays and increased costs. The technology sector, for instance, may face challenges due to restrictions on H-1B visas, which are crucial for hiring skilled foreign workers.

Regulatory Uncertainty: Companies are concerned about the lack of clarity and potential rapid implementation of new immigration policies, making it difficult to plan for workforce needs and compliance requirements. Due to this, some anticipate processing times for visa applications and employment authorization may slow as agencies apply more stringent review standards. We may also see an increase in the issuance of Requests for Evidence (RFEs) and denials. Additionally, proposed fee hikes could further increase the costs of securing immigration benefits for employees. We might even see restricted access to certain specific pathways. As immigration teams develop backup alternative plans, some visa types may get tighter.

What can mobility teams start doing?

Immigration firms are suggesting that global mobility teams should look back at the first Trump administration to consider what might happen. They encourage corporate mobility teams to work with them to determine where strategic adjustments are needed to meet company objectives and to review job roles. If compliance has been a problem, now would be the time to review procedures and revise policy to fine tune things. Mobility and immigration teams can begin by communicating with stakeholders, letting them know that changes could come quickly. Then monitor actual changes and share them as they happen. Be sure to share that denials may increase, along with costs for immigration. For mobility programs, this might also lead to an increase in exception requests. 

Here are 5 proactive steps to adapt and manage your immigration program heading into 2025:

1. Conduct Workforce Planning and Impact Assessments. First assess vulnerability.  Identify employees on temporary work visas, such as H-1B, L-1, or those with Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) status. Determine how potential changes may impact their status and roles. Then, do some scenario planning by evaluating potential workforce gaps and working through scenarios based on anticipated policy changes, such as stricter visa requirements or caps on renewals.
2. Engage in Strategic Workforce Diversification. First, expand the talent pool. Look to diversify workforce sources by exploring talent in regions where visa requirements may be less affected. Next, consider remote and distributed work. For roles that can be remote, consider hiring employees based in countries outside the U.S., minimizing dependency on U.S. immigration policies.
3. Optimize Current Visa Programs. First, expedite certain applications. For employees eligible for permanent residency, consider sponsoring green cards now to avoid potential delays under new rules. Consider alternative visa categories. Explore alternative visa options that may be less impacted, such as E-2 investor visas or the O-1 visa for individuals with extraordinary ability.
4. Ensure Compliance with Evolving Regulations. First stay updated. Regularly monitor policy developments and USCIS announcements to stay informed of new requirements and deadlines. Immigration-related audits may increase, so prepare by ensuring all documentation and internal records are up-to-date and compliant with current regulations.
5. Communicate and Support Affected Employees. Develop employee communications. Provide clear updates on policy changes and any steps the organization is taking in response. Offer open Q&A sessions to address employee concerns. Get good legal support, Partner with immigration law experts to support employees in complex situations and provide guidance on navigating new policies.

There are also number of webinars and white papers being developed by corporate mobility immigration firms. Let us know if you are looking for more professional support!