ICYMI: BA.2.12.1 is dominant as more countries reduce restrictions and cost become biggest concern

Welcome back to being cautious, even after one of the busiest travel periods since the start of the pandemic. COVID-19 strain BA.2.12.1 was responsible for 58% of recorded new coronavirus cases last week, according to updated data, meaning that you're now more likely to catch it than other COVID variants. 

In our last ICYMI bi-weekly post, we wrote about reinfections, new surges, and how the virus continues to evolve.  So when I read a recent GBTA Daily News Brief, I was grabbed by the headline of "COVID No Longer the Biggest Concern for Many Travelers", especially since cases have been on the rise and are 4 times higher than this time last year in the U.S. Per that brief, the latest installment (wave 61) of Longwoods International's ongoing American Travel Sentiment Study found that record-high gas prices and airfares have now overtaken pandemic related concerns. According to the study, one-third of travelers said that gas prices will greatly affect their travel plans over the next six months, while one-quarter reported that the soaring price of plane tickets will impact them in a similar way. 

“Barring a major reversal in the course of the pandemic, COVID-19’s impact on the travel and tourism industry appears to be tailing off,” said Amir Eylon, President and CEO of Longwoods International.  “Concerns about gas prices and other inflationary pressure on costs have become a more significant challenge even as pandemic fears recede.”

Only 19% of respondents said the COVID-19 pandemic now stands to greatly influence their travel decisions for the same time frame. However, the current surge of infections is noticeable, including my own heightened awareness from a number of people in my life that have recently caught the latest wave. For the 2 weeks before Memorial Day, cases across the U.S. were up 30%, so it will be interesting to see how the numbers look in a few more weeks. 

Covid-19 restrictions have been vanishing at an accelerated pace. In the last four weeks, 19 new countries have dropped or lowered entry requirements. Let's look around to see where the pandemic continues to potentially impact global mobility programs:

1. United States:  There have been no significant changes to the United States domestic travel guidelines since April 2022. No state has a mandatory quarantine or proof of vaccine requirements. Mandatory masking is now also rare, however many airports still require them. For example, of the four New York airports, JFK, La Guardia and Stewart still require masks. However, masks are optional at Newark International Airport in New Jersey. In North Carolina cases continue to increase by 15%, although wastewater testing indicates that is dramatically low and that the level of increase is closer to 40% and the number hospitalized has gone up by 20% this week. San Diego County’s latest coronavirus numbers show that a person’s chances of getting infected this Memorial Day weekend will be much greater than they were one year ago. Daily case counts updated Thursday afternoon show that there were 1,897 new cases reported Wednesday, nearly 26 times the 73 reported on the same day in 2021. 
2. Japan: Starting June 10, Japan is allowing some package-tour tourists from overseas to enter the country. This is the first time since imposing tight pandemic travel restrictions about two years ago! Tourists from areas with low COVID-19 infection rates who have received three vaccine doses will be exempt from testing and quarantine after entry. Japan has eased its restrictions earlier this year and currently allows entry of up to 10,000 people a day, including Japanese citizens, foreign students and some business travelers. That number will go to 20,000 on June 1.
3. China: Beijing is not officially locked down but reports are that it has been hard to tell as the city continues to see infections despite curbs. Shanghai has moved to reopening schools after having been shut down for 3 months. Authorities are allowing more people out of their homes and more businesses to reopen. Shanghai is slowly expanding public transport after reopening four of its 20 subway lines and more than 250 bus routes on Sunday. Across the country, some 28 cities were conducting mass testing on May 26. But the lockdown fences and police tape are coming down as restrictions come to an end.
4. Taiwan: The country has experienced high case counts and recently hit single-day highs for deaths but seems to have reached a plateau and maintains a policy of gradual easing of restrictions. Taiwan's current wave is expected to be less severe than comparable waves in Hong Kong, South Korea, and New Zealand.
5. Israel: Israel is eliminating some of the last remaining coronavirus regulations. Saturday, May 21, both Israeli and foreign travelers will no longer be required to take a PCR test upon arrival at Ben Gurion Airport. Travel insurance and passenger attestations are still required, but vaccination, PCR testing, and mask requirements lifted May 23. 
6. Belgium: With no “very high risk countries” noted as of May 23, all Covid considerations for entry have essentially been removed. You can track that as it changes here.
7. Spain: Despite what we posted 2 weeks ago, now unvaccinated visitors from non-European Union countries, including the United States and UK, can now go to Spain by submitting results of a negative COVID-19 test taken ahead of travel. Travelers are able to take a PCR test within 72 hours of departure or a rapid antigen test within one day (or 24 hours) of departure for Spain.
8. Cyprus: Starting on June 1, citizens are excluded from the requirement to wear a protective mask in closed spaces except for hospitals, where visitors will continue wearing a mask in order to enter those. The country has scrapped several restrictions imposed due to COVID-19 in April, ahead of the summer season, during which tourism is expected to recover from two-year-long little to no activity. It will suspend the 3G rule which requires travelers to present a valid vaccination, recovery, or test certificate in order to enter the country.  
9. Germany: In the latest update, starting June 1, Germany will start recognizing the Indian-made vaccine, Covaxin, which has been developed by Bharat Biotech as valid for entry into the country. Additionally, several other restrictions end as of June 1. However, arrivals from the so-called “virus variant areas” will remain subject to travel restrictions, such as entering a 14-day quarantine on arrival, regardless of vaccination status. Currently, no countries are considered as a virus variant area in the German list. 
10. Oman: The Sultanate lifted all remaining Covid-19 restrictions at the border as well as indoor mask wearing on May 22. 

A new study report out by the International Organization for Migration and Migration Policy Institute entitled "COVID-19 and the State of Global Mobility in 2021", outlines trends in cross-border mobility regimes at the global and regional levels in 2021, compares these to the benchmark set in 2020, and concludes with recommendations and key questions the world will need to grapple with in 2022. The study shares, "Migration and mobility will inevitably return to pre-pandemic levels – the economic need to restart travel is clear – but when, how and who can travel will depend on whether governments and authorities commit to clear, equitable and efficient travel measures and policy responses. By learning from and building on the lessons of the pandemic thus far, governments and authorities and their partners can work to restart mobility at scale and build a more resilient global mobility architecture in 2022 and beyond." There is also the cost factor that we'll continue to struggle with as we look out ahead at global mobility for the rest of 2022.