Will the RTO ultimatum increase relocation activity?

Fortune's recent article shared that post-Labor Day return to office (RTO) mandates could push office attendance past 50% for the first time since the pandemic. Based on data from real estate firm Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), it's estimated that over 1 million employees are expected to be called into the office at least part of the week for the first time beginning in September. However, there continues to be a schism between the employer vs employee preferences. Nearly half of of employees see flexible remote work as a huge element that would impact whether they would work (or remain working) at a company. Even 66% of leaders surveyed by Deloitte who work remotely at least part of the time said it’s likely they’d leave their current job if their company required them to return to the office five days a week.

There continue to be lots of interesting debates going on right now, both in the news and inside individual companies, about the ideal work structure. This is leading to many different types of questions and conversations. Here are just a few of the different topics being discussed about the impact of RTO mandates:

• Is RTO detrimental to sustainability? We are seeing that eco-concerns are being used in the argument to promote hybrid/remote work. Many are giving this point to remote work and claiming it is better for the Earth! 
• How will RTO policies impact talent attraction and retention? The reality is that 83% of workers are actively looking for a new job, and there is some concern that percentage will increase. Per this article in The Future of Work Exchange, “Unispace found that nearly half (42%) of companies with return-to-office mandates witnessed a higher level of employee attrition than they had anticipated. And almost a third (29%) of companies enforcing office returns are struggling with recruitment. In other words, employers knew the mandates would cause some attrition, but they weren’t ready for the serious problems that would result."
• How will RTO mandates impact employee morale, productivity, and output? Most leaders point to employees being less productive, less collaborative, and less innovative when not in the office. They want the the focus to be on the team and raising the level of the entire group. They also argue remote is not as good for lower-level and new employees. On the other side, as shared by this Fortune article, "it’s fair to generalize that business results were sustained or even improved between 2020 and 2022". Additionally, this study shared insights related to collaboration where 75% of creative collaboration happens (drumroll please...) remotely! Depending on which data is being looked at, there seems to be some on both sides that is keeping the pendulum swinging. 
• How will employers handle the increase in self-initiated requests to work from a new location? How does a RTO mandate impact how companies will respond to these requests? With the increased ability and acceptance of working from new locations, many employees are looking for new experiences (work and life), better work-life balance, desire to be closer to family/friends, or simply want their income to go further in a less costly location. How are employers that are mandating RTO handling these requests and how will employees respond to being vetoed?

Ultimately, when it comes to answering the question in our title, the hypothesis might be that relocations coming through corporate mobility programs should see an increase as companies up their RTO mandates. Companies are now requiring employees hired under the premise of eventually being in the office (at least a bit more) to move to their new locations. We also know that due to inflation, economic volatility, challenging housing markets, and mortgage rates, there has been a certain level of increased risk felt by employees. This feeling of risk may evolve into a place where many employees who have been on the fence about moving will take the next steps to make a move happen. Lastly, with the increase in requests to work from alternative locations, the reality will be that many employees are more likely to choose a company who will be flexible with them and support their desire to move. For many companies, this could also lead to increased relocation activity. 

So as we move through the September Surge job hunting period (now to around Halloween), will we expect to see increases in corporate relocation activity? Will this activity be driven by the company or self-initiated by employees (or both)? Let's keep an eye on all of this! There are a number of "ifs" (economy, inflation, interest rates, housing markets, etc.), but from the data we're seeing, I predict a slow, steady increase in relocation volume.