A Great Housing Reset? Considering What 2026 Holds for Corporate Mobility Programs

After three years of unprecedented housing market challenges, mobility professionals have reason for cautious optimism as they look toward 2026. While the "lock-in effect" that has immobilized the workforce isn't disappearing overnight, industry forecasters are characterizing 2026 as "The Great Housing Reset"—the beginning of a long, gradual recovery that could finally ease some of the affordability pressures constraining corporate relocation programs.

The Current Challenge

The housing challenges facing mobility programs remain substantial. More than half of American homeowners say they wouldn't feel comfortable selling their homes at any mortgage rate. The mathematics are unforgiving: an employee who secured a 3% mortgage during the pandemic faces rates more than double that amount, creating monthly payment increases of $730 or more on comparable homes. Over 50% of outstanding mortgages still carry rates between 3% and 4%, while current rates hover in the mid-6% range, translating to continued declination rates and stalled talent development initiatives.

Signs of Improvement on the Horizon

Despite these challenges, multiple indicators suggest 2026 will mark a turning point. Fannie Mae forecasts mortgage rates will decline to 5.9% by year-end 2026, from 6.4% at the close of 2025. Most forecasters predict rates averaging between 6.0% and 6.3% throughout the year—meaningfully lower than the 6.8% rates that characterized much of 2025.

The National Association of Realtors projects a 14% increase in existing home sales for 2026, driven by easing mortgage rates and continued job growth. Even conservative forecasts anticipate sales increases of 3% to 4%. Housing inventory has risen for twelve consecutive months, now at its highest level since 2019, giving relocating employees more options and negotiating power.

Perhaps most significantly, a fundamental shift in affordability dynamics is underway. According to Fortune, income growth is projected to outpace home price growth for a prolonged period for the first time since the Great Recession era. Redfin forecasts median home sales prices will increase by just 1% while wage growth remains steady at 4%. Realtor.com projects that monthly housing payments will fall to 29.3% of median income in 2026—the first time below the critical 30% affordability threshold since 2022.

Regional Variations Create Strategic Opportunities

The 2026 landscape will be characterized by significant regional divergence. Markets that experienced explosive pandemic-era growth—including cities across Florida, Texas, and Arizona—are experiencing corrections. Austin, San Antonio, Tampa, and Jacksonville lead in price declines and "stale listings." Conversely, supply-constrained markets in the Northeast and Midwest remain competitive, with cities like Hartford, Chicago, and Providence operating with inventory 25% to 74% below pre-pandemic norms.

Realtor.com projects the strongest price appreciation in Midwest markets including Toledo, Syracuse, and Scranton, while forecasting the steepest declines in Cape Coral, North Port, and Stockton. This geographic fragmentation means one-size-fits-all mobility policies will prove increasingly ineffective.

The Lock-In Effect: Gradually Unwinding

While the lock-in effect remains significant, data shows it's loosening. The share of mortgages with rates below 3% has declined to 20.4%—the smallest share since 2021. Nearly one in five homeowners now has a rate of at least 6%, the highest share since 2015, suggesting more homeowners are moving from "trapped" status into positions where relocation becomes financially feasible.

Strategic Imperatives for 2026

Forward-thinking mobility programs can capitalize on these emerging trends through targeted initiatives:

• Enhanced Financial Support: With modest rate improvements on the horizon, targeted assistance can push hesitant employees over the decision threshold. Reinstating loss-on-sale benefits addresses a specific pain point for employees who purchased during the 2020-2023 peak, with most companies capping this benefit between $25,000 and $50,000.

• Flexible Housing Solutions: As rental costs average 30% lower than ownership expenses, robust rental assistance programs allow employees to defer home purchase decisions. Corporate housing and extended-stay arrangements provide similar flexibility.

• Geographic Targeting: Direct relocations toward cooling markets in the Southeast and Southwest for dual benefits of lower housing costs and reduced competition. For moves to supply-constrained markets, early planning helps employees time purchases strategically.

• Mortgage Rate Buydowns: As rates decline toward 6%, temporary buydowns that reduce rates by 0.5% to 1% for the first few years can dramatically improve affordability without open-ended commitments.

• Data-Driven Policy Design: Location-specific policies reflecting destination market realities prove more effective than national averages. Markets experiencing corrections may require less generous packages, while supply-constrained destinations warrant enhanced support.

Realistic Expectations

Mobility professionals should maintain realistic expectations. As industry observers emphasize, 2026 represents "a reset year, not a rebound year." Improvements are meaningful but modest—a return to functionality rather than the frictionless mobility of previous decades. Existing home sales will likely rise between 3% and 14%, with results depending on employment trends, inflation trajectory, and Federal Reserve decisions.

A Window of Opportunity

For corporate mobility programs, 2026 presents a strategic inflection point. After three years of defensive policies focused on managing decline, the year ahead offers an opportunity to shift back toward enabling strategic talent mobility. As one real estate executive told Fortune, "The U.S. housing market should be considered moving from frozen to thawing. Prices aren't surging, but they're no longer falling. We are beginning to unlock some activity that's been trapped for a couple of years."

The improvements in affordability, inventory, and mortgage rates—while modest—should be sufficient to unlock relocations that were previously difficult. Success will require mobility professionals to stay agile, market-informed, and employee-focused. Programs that recognize regional variations, offer flexible solutions, and provide adequate financial support will be best positioned to capitalize on improving conditions.

The Great Housing Reset is underway. 2026 won't restore pre-pandemic conditions, but it offers something more valuable: predictability. Mobility professionals can plan around improving fundamentals rather than reacting to crisis conditions. The question is no longer whether housing markets will stabilize, but how quickly your program adapts to capitalize on the shift.